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Crash Causation and Countermeasure Analysis

Crash causation research identifies factors and mechanisms that increase crash risk. Through an understanding of the circumstances, actions, or conditions that increase the probability of a crash, countermeasures can be identified to reduce the severity of crashes or to prevent them altogether.

Risk factors are identified through analysis of crash data to identify the primary contributors to truck crashes. Risk can be evaluated in absolute terms if suitable exposure data is available (for example, crashes per million miles of travel) or in terms of relative risk (for example, a hypothetical increase in risk of truck-striking rear-end crashes where brakes are out of adjustment in comparison to truck-struck).

Statistical models are used to evaluate the joint operation of many risk factors. These models help sort out primary contributors and identify any interactions. Clinical analysis of samples of truck crashes is used to validate the identification of crash mechanisms and to provide further insight not available in the coded data. Clinical reviews are also used to estimate the efficacy of proposed countermeasures, based on a detailed understanding of crash events and engineering knowledge of countermeasure mechanisms.

Recent Publications

Condition of trucks and truck crash involvement evidence from the large truck crash causation study.
Daniel Blower, Paul E. Green, Anne Matteson.

journal article IN: Transportation Research Record. Vol. 2194 (2010), p. 21-28.

This study, using the Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS), examined the relationship between the mechanical condition of heavy...

Truck mechanical condition and crashes in the large truck crash causation study
Daniel F. Blower, Paul E. Green.

report UMTRI-2009-9
IN: Sponsored by: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

This study examines the relationship of heavy truck mechanical condition and crash risk. The LTCCS presents an opportunity to examine...